Factors Influencing Tourism Demand to Revisit Pha Ngan Island Using Generalized Maximum Entropy

Apiwat Ayusuk, Kittawit Autchariyapanitkul

Abstract

This study aims to examine the predictive factors of a tourist's decision to revisit Pha Ngan Island in  Surat Thani Province of Thailand. A sample survey was collected from a random sample of tourists to Pha Ngan Island. The binary logistic regression model was applied. We use the method of generalized maximum entropy for estimating the model parameters. Based on the accuracy criteria of mean square error(MSE) to justify the model, the present study demonstrated that the prediction of tourism demand for revisiting Pha Ngan Island which is obtained from logistic regression by using GME method is more accurate than ML method, in the case of a small sample size. We also found that price and promotion are the factors influencing to tourism demand.