Relationships Among Prices of Rubber in ASEAN : Bayesian Structural VAR Model

N. Kaewsompong, S. Sriboonchitta, P. Maneejuk, W. Yamaka

Abstract

International rubber markets are seen to be volatile due to the highcompetitiveness between major rubber export markets. This paper analyses thecausal impact price transmission among ASEAN over the period of 2008 to 2015. The Bayesian structural VAR model is conducted to analyse relationship amongrubber export price for top four rubber producing in ASEAN. We considered thevarying sets of hyper-parameters to obtain the best fit model. The results revealthat Indonesia and Thailand have more efficiency when it comes to adjustment oftheir rubber prices than Malaysia and Vietnam.