Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Thailand

Ekkachai Thawinan, Somchai Sriyab

Abstract

The ongoing Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is currently one of the largest problems in the world. In Thailand, the disease has affected all Thai people, with implications for the economy, living standards, tourism etc. In this work, we propose a mathematical model to explain the number of cases in Thailand, including exposed, symptomatic infected, asymptomatic infected, hospitalized, recovered and deceased, and compare these numbers with data reported by the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Heath, Thailand. The basic reproduction number has been computed to show how the disease spreads. The effect of transmission coefficient explaining the transmission from asymptomatic patients demonstrates the most important factor in this outbreak.  The numerical results show that the number in each population category is consistency with the reported data before the lock down measurements start on March 26, 2020. Therefore, we can predict the number of each population category in the future without any government actions. The model shows that each symptomatic infected case reported, there are still 6 - 13 asymptomatic infected cases in Thailand.